Visitor Data 2021

Methodology

Visitor estimates are calculated using the Cambridge Model.  The Cambridge Model is a computer-based model developed to calculate estimates of the volume, value and economic impact of tourism on a County or District basis.  It draws on the combined experience of PA Cambridge Economic Consultants Ltd, Geoff Broom Associates and the former Regional Tourist Boards and utilises a standard methodology capable of application throughout the UK. The approach was the subject of independent validation (R.Vaughan, Bournemouth University) in December 1994. The Model was judged robust and the margins of error acceptable and in line with other modelling techniques.  More recently the model was also recognised as suitable for modelling tourism activity by the ONS Tourism Intelligence Unit.

Torbay 2021

Download the data here.

Good levels of business compared to 2020 and getting back towards 2019 levels, which isn’t bad considering self-catering didn’t start to re-open until mid-April and serviced accommodation until mid-May with business levels dropping off again at the end of the year due to the Omicron variant of Covid (see attached timeline).  Visitor nights to some accommodation types are estimated to be higher than 2019 levels even with the much shorter year and it was July before everything was able to open fully without restrictions.

This year’s methodology is the same as last years, using locally gathered performance data throughout the year to estimate 2021 activity comparing against 2019 data. 

The limited IPS data available has been used in overseas estimates.  You will see that this estimated reduced trips and spend but increases in visitor nights which is likely to be explained by VFR, study etc. trips being made rather than the usual holiday type trips during most of the year.  Revised IPS data has recently become available which we will look at before releasing final figures, but changes to your figures are unlikely to be significant.

We were hoping to have GBTS data as well to use this year, but the scheduled August release has been pushed back to October and we are unable to get any detail yet as to what data will be available and to what geographical level which is why we have pushed on with the same methodology.  We do know that GBTS will only have 9 months data for 2021 at best.

Please note that employment estimates are the numbers of jobs we estimate are supported by the visitor spend in the area.  Other jobs are also likely to have been supported by the furlough scheme which will not be included in these figures, as was the case during 2020.